Prices over the past month continued their recent pattern of stability, strengthening recovery from the lows reached in 2008. The Lyn Knight auction held in conjunction with the PCDA sponsored International Currency and Coin Convention confirmed trends observed in the recent past, i.e. prices are either stable or moving somewhat upward in the face of the reentry of buyers priced out of contention by the exceptionally high levels that peaked and then experienced downward correction in late 2008. Prices also continue to show upward pressure driven by new entrants seeking alternative means of wealth storage given the present historically low interest rates. Additionally, the growing availability of capital sources to finance numismatic purchases in general, available either directly from auction firms or via their corporate affiliates, is a factor encouraging buyer interest and rising prices.

LARGE SIZE TYPE NOTES
     Large Size Type Notes in the Knight PCDA auction experienced a 95% sell-through rate. Notable for its presence in the sale was an item in a category missing from a number of recent significant auctions, a Note expected to sell—if at all—for well into six figures. Lot 1819, a Fr. 377 $100 1890 Treasury Note, certified by PCGS as XF45, was estimated at $250,000-$350,000. Last sold in 2007 for $253,000, it went for $210,250 this time. Another result in the upper price ranges meriting comment was the $97,750 achieved by a Fr. 1180 $20 1905 Technicolor Note certified as PCGS 67PPQ. This is an impressive result multiples in advance of what a similar piece only marginally less attractive might be expected to command.
     Results for more commonly traded Large Size Type included $14,950 for a $1 1896 Fr. 225 in PCGS 67PPQ; $4,025 for a $1 1896 Fr. 225 in PCGS 65PPQ; $17,250 for a Fr. 247 $2 1896 in PCGS 67PPQ; and $21,850 for a Fr. 263 $5 1886 Silver Dollar Back in PMG 65EPQ.

SMALL SIZE TYPE NOTES
     Small Size Type Notes in the Knight Rosemont PCDA auction displayed an 84% sell-through rate. Low and fancy serial numbers continue to appear in some abundance at auction, indicating their well established and growing popularity within the collecting community. The two high profile lots in this specialty were a $5,000 1934-K FRN certified as PMG 55EPQ which sold for $69,000. A $10,000 1934-B FRN in PCGS 65 sold for $86,250. This shortfall could perhaps be accounted for by the absence of a PPQ designation, indicating a lack of original paper surfaces. Or, as diplomatically addressed by the cataloger “…Ex Binion Hoard. Each Note lost some originality when they came out of the glass so it’s not graded PPQ.” Translation: many of the Binion Notes were artificially enhanced to improve their appearance and increase their market value. In general, material here sold in accord with recent results for items of similar quality and scarcity, with no new trends being defined, either upward or downward.

FRACTIONAL CURRENCY
     The small offering of Fractional Currency in the Knight PCDA sale saw 95% of the lots sell. With most of the Notes here not particularly scarce, it is difficult to draw any generalizations, although the $2,760 price paid for a Fr. 1371 50 Cent Justice Fiber Paper Note in PCGS AU 58PPQ demonstrates that buyers here do appreciate challenging-to-acquire material when both scarcity and quality are present. In general, supply remains ahead of demand, and ordinary Notes often sell for disappointing fractions of seller expectations—when they sell at all. As mentioned here in the past, buyers in this field are especially focused on centering and will pay strong premiums for especially well-centered items, regardless of underlying scarcity.

NATIONAL BANK NOTES
     National Bank Notes in the Knight PCDA sale saw an impressive 89% sell-through rate, especially worth noting when one remembers that given the extreme geographical base of collector specialization here, the universe of buyers for Notes from any particular state is quite limited. Two results stand out. A lazy $2 from the National Bank of Commerce in New London, CT, certified as PCGS 63PPQ sold for $23,000. A PCGS 64PPQ from the intriguingly titled National Whaling Bank in the same city went for $26,450.

MISCELLANEOUS
     Of particular significance in the Knight auction was the 94% sell-through rate for the 750+ lot foreign section. With a scattering of results in the $15,000+ range and a considerable number reaching into four figures, the sale results confirm an especially strong growth of recent interest in this far ranging specialty area. Demand here appears to be particularly robust and growing measurably stronger. It should be kept in mind that when the Knight firm (which pioneered efforts to mainstream the marketing of foreign Notes via auction ten or more years ago) first entered the field, sell-through rates were more generally in the 60% range. For a time, the firm actually ceased offering foreign material in its live auctions. The marketplace for this quite large field seems to have undergone a significant change in the intervening years, as evidenced by the strong Bidder reception for the large offering of world material in the Rosemont sale, with the foreign section of that auction actually being the largest in scope and size of the various sections offered there.

Reprinted from the No. 12 DECEMBER 2011 issue of the Currency Dealer Newsletter "the Greensheet"
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